Chapter 18 – Systematic Reviews of Prediction Models – Systematic Reviews in Health Research

Gary S. Collins, Karel G.M. Moons, Thomas P.A. Debray, Douglas G. Altman, Richard D. Riley

Abstract

Prediction models combine values of multiple predictors to estimate an individual’s risk of having a certain outcome or disease (diagnostic models) or developing a future outcome (prognostic models). Systematic reviews are needed to identify existing prediction models for a certain target population or outcome and to summarize their predictive performance and heterogeneity in their performance. Appraising the quality and reporting of a prediction model study is essential. Studies describing the development or validation of a prediction model often do not conform to prevailing methodological standards and key details are often not reported. Meta-analysis of the predictive performance of a specific prediction model from multiple external validation studies of that model is possible, focusing on calibration and discrimination. In this chapter, we describe the types of systematic reviews that can be conducted on prediction model studies and discuss the challenges faced in identifying, appraising, and qualitatively and quantitatively synthesizing these studies.

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Author affiliations

Gary S. Collins

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

Karel G.M. Moons

Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care; Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Thomas P.A. Debray

Julius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care; Cochrane Netherlands, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands

Douglas G. Altman

Centre for Statistics in Medicine, Nuffield Department of Orthopaedics, Rheumatology and Musculoskeletal Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK

Richard D. Riley

Centre for Prognosis Research, School of Medicine, Keele University, Newcastle-under-Lyme, UK

How to cite this chapter?

For the printed version of the book

Collins, G.S., Moons, K.G.M., Debray, T.P.A., Altman, D.G. and Riley, R.D. (2022). Chapter 18. Systematic reviews of prediction models. In: Systematic Reviews in Health Research: Meta-analysis in Context (eds M. Egger, J.P.T. Higgins and G. Davey Smith), pp 347-376. Hoboken, NJ : Wiley.